Evrai methodology
What Evrai measures
Evrai records prices, fills, results, exposure, and bankroll context so users can evaluate a decision process over time. It does not sell picks or promise that an estimate, strategy, or past record will produce a future return.
CLV and Fair Value Spread are different
Closing Line Value compares a sportsbook entry price with a defined closing reference for the same market and rules. Fair Value Spread compares a prediction-market fill with an independent, time-aligned fair-probability estimate when that estimate exists. Missing fair-value coverage stays missing rather than becoming zero.
CLV is a price-quality comparison, not a guarantee of profit. Its usefulness depends on matching market, liquidity, observation time, rules, and data quality. Fair Value Spread is neither a settlement outcome nor ordinary CLV: the independent estimate must have existed at or before the fill.
Calculator assumptions
No-vig methods normalize quoted prices; expected value depends on a probability estimate; Kelly sizing is highly sensitive to estimation error; and multi-leg probability multiplication assumes independence unless a separate correlation model is supplied.
Quoted market prices and fees come from venues; fair probabilities may come from a user's model. Calculator examples are illustrative. They do not validate a model or account for every cost, payout rule, or correlation. Review fair-odds inputs before interpreting an EV or stake output.
Sources, timestamps, and corrections
Market references should retain their source and observation time. Editorial claims use primary sources where available, record a review date, and are corrected when the underlying rules or evidence change.
A missing or stale reference should be shown as unavailable, with its coverage disclosed. We review sources when rules change and correct affected wording or examples. Analysis is decision support; users remain responsible for checking current venue rules, fees, and risk before acting.
Sources
- A New Interpretation of Information Rate — Bell System Technical Journal. Reviewed .
- Fees — Kalshi Help Center. Reviewed .
- What is Polymarket? — Polymarket Documentation. Reviewed .